2025 will see dramatic changes in the international order. At Tissue World Istanbul 2024, Mark Goddard, Director, Risk, Business Intelligence, Government Relations at SecureValue, accessed the volatile years ahead. Here, he summaries the talk for TWM.
Türkiye’s post-Covid recovery and the reformulation of its geopolitical and trade positions
Geopolitical uncertainty – it is here to stay!
“As we have a business in which three quarters of full production is international, everywhere is a market, so we must follow all the markets…as a result of disrupted supply chains and rising energy prices due to geopolitical events.”
“…And who knows what’s going to happen in Panama, if the channel is open or not. Or what’s going to happen in the war in Ukraine or Palestine. They all have effect…”
“The EU’s economy has been hit by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war… uncertainty from Hamas-Israel… the US election is also adding market uncertainty…”
“Market uncertainties, including conflicts in the Middle East and in Ukraine and political elections.”
Tissue World Magazine, Sept/Oct 2024
2025 will see changes in the international order:
- New Norms: Navigating shifts in political and economic power.
- Defence and trade security are now paramount.
- New sources of political and economic power need to be recognised and adapted to.
- The Trump ‘Chaos Premium’ – chaos and unpredictability are the rule.
- Supply chain disruption by protectionist forces.
- Continuing weaponisation of vital supply routes.
- Challenge to existing global order and the undermining of global institutions.
- Foreign policy statements by the African Union, GCC & BRICS+ – a new norm.
In 2025, we expect that chaos will be the order of the day: we expect to see further supply chain disruption, and the key issue of security within many regions globally.
Populism is about short-term promises. Key questions will remain about the realignment in the EU, the long-term potential of the Central Asian “… stan” countries – which are becoming increasingly important and bring up questions of the BRICS’ member states’ status – whether Türkiye will become a member of BRICS, and Türkiye’s relationship with Greece.
Türkiye: harmonising; realigning; initiating geopolitical relations
Globally, Türkiye is a key logistical power, especially for energy. The country is surrounded by regions where many of the world’s most crucial issues are in dispute, and is implementing a 360-degree diplomacy policy. Transport and infrastructure are key issues for the world and the global tissue market.
Türkiye has always had these links which make the country invaluable for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the Middle Corridor. The Middle Corridor crucially harmonises with China’s BRI to create a seamless transport route, avoiding countries of potential contention.
We expect that transport here will increase threefold by 2030 – emphasising the increasing importance of secure supply corridors in the short and medium term.
“Regional Integrated Transport Corridors” 2018. Early recognition of key routes for Central Asia, Caspian, Black Sea.
- GCC – Türkiye Joint Action Plan renewed 2024-2029.
- Minerals Security Partnership September 2024.
- Harmonise relations with the Quartet: Bahrain, Egypt, KSA; UAE.
- BRICS+ member application September 2024.
- US-Türkiye Energy and Climate Dialogue May 2024.
- Promotion of the Organisation of Turkic States – OTS (2021 – 2023).
- COP 29 – Baku. President Erdoğan Speaks at COP29 World Leaders Climate Action Summit.
- Ukraine conflict has renewed international interest in the Middle Corridor.
- European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and Türkiye hold 1st JCM (2023).
- EU relations realignment initiatives (2023-2024).
- 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative – scope to restore and secure.
- European Political Community (November 2024) – key themes, economic security and connectivity.
- Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (July 2024) – declared intention for membership.
Challenging existing norms and shifts away from unipolarity
African union:
- Emergence as a united voice – rejected Russia’s attempts to defer reform of UN ‘pact for the future’.
- 2023 – G20 membership.
- The Third Africa-Türkiye Ministerial Review Conference November 2024.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC):
- GCC States and EFTA – June 2024, broaden co-operation to liberalise their trade.
- Foreign policy statements on the Israel/Palestine/Lebanon conflicts.
- Strategic Dialogue Meeting in June 2024 extended the GCC – Türkiye Joint Action Plan until 2029.
BRICS Russia 2024, the sixteenth annual BRICS summit, held in Kazan, Russia:
- First ever BRICS+ summit.
- BRICS+ now accounts for half of the world’s population, 40% of its trade, 40% of crude oil production and exports.
- Foreign ministers issue joint statements.
- Five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
- Türkiye, latest applicant and only member of NATO – rejected.
- But Türkiye given ‘partner state’ status.
EU-Türkiye realignment
- European countries increasingly see Türkiye as a competitor to the EU in the Western Balkans, Central Asia and Africa.
- Debate over EU Accession vs Partnership, with the latter becoming the prevailing norm.
- Co-operation in areas such as energy, foreign policy, and migration – discussions about updating the customs agreement.
- August 2024, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers for the first time in five years.
- November 2024: Fidan meets his Greek counterpart in Ankara, building on the 2023 Athens Declaration.
Central Asia – renewed importance for energy supply security
- Mutual security and strategic alignment.
- Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Türkiye, all now given BRICS ‘partner state’ status.
- Geopolitical threats to shipping routes forces a change of focus.
- C5 initiatives to seek alignment and cooperation, by US, China, and India.
- Türkiye’s Middle Corridor and China’s BRI all link with Central Asia.
Secure supply corridors – Middle Corridor
- Focus is on energy security and resilience.
- Links with the China–Central Asia–West Asia Economic Corridor (CCAWEC).
- Both Middle Corridor and CCAWEC includes links with South Caucasus, most importantly with Azerbaijan.
- 2021 trade volumes are expected to triple by 2030.
Türkiye occupies a key strategic position
- The Bosphorus straight is a key supply bottleneck.
- The Black Sea is the transit point for 22% of global grain supply.
Any secure corridor is key, and we will see the Middle Corridor emerge further in 2025. This is very important because other supply routes have come under immense stress. Countries are starting to militarily defend these corridors – this is creating points of volatility, resulting in more uncertainty, and more volatility. The fear is it escalates even further by the weaponisation of traditional supply corridors (Suez/Red Sea).
Because of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Türkiye’s role in the Black Sea is vital. The hope is that Türkiye will help create a resolution, as it did with the Black Sea Grain Initiative (2022-23). There is a push for change, and there are opportunities here: it’s about security and stability.There is a lot of opportunity for Türkiye to emerge as an increasingly important player in the current geopolitical climate.