A 20-year projection for CAGR at 8.1% by 2027 is still on track. The last few of those 20 have seen a slowdown from roughly 10% growth, with fewer activated or planned projects. But it is a very Turkish slowdown … “maybe just 6-7% capacity increase” according to Şahin Civelek, Hayat Kimya’s Global Tissue Production Director, who features in Operations Reports.
All the signs are that a new wave of investments is imminent, even set against a key issue of Chinese-like overcapacity – hence high export levels – and a national economy which itself looks anything but stable.
The last full year national balance sheet shows GDP growing by 4.5%, pushing the economy past $1trillion for the first time. An average 3.1% rise is projected up to 2027, compared to 1.6% for Western Europe.
Yet the country is suffering hyperinflation. 2023’s average was 53.9%. Such are the contradiction which seem to beset this geographically important nation. A plus for tissue is a large friendly sector which powers that GDP growth … strong household consumption, which constitutes 60%. TWM’s extensive Country Report captures the energy and excellence which has driven these companies into leading positions across the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa – and export to five continents.
They are scanning the horizon again. Şahin Civelek refers to a coming “counterbalance” in investment in three to four years: “We couldn’t invest more with the supply and demand … that’s why we couldn’t expand or jump into new countries. But now, the time is here! In the next few years, there will be good news.”
Tissue’s critical turning point – or a new era already underway?
MarketIssues states: “At first glance it might seem that the tissue industry is on its way to a critical turning point. In fact, data suggests that it has navigated this turbulent environment very strongly, and seems to be in solid shape.” The “critical turning point” results from accumulated disruption against what are euphemistically called ‘economic headwinds.’ The 2008/9 crash, the Covid pandemic, soaring energy prices, extreme geopolitics.
AFRY Management Consulting’s analysis takes a European focus which can be broadened out globally, and shows that the ten months of 2024 have seen a broad tissue market recovery with total demand of 5.5%. AfH’s recovery played a major role.
The “solid shape” includes best practise in hitting decarbonisation targets in the decades up to 2050, cost efficiency, innovation and quality across brands and private label, meeting customers’ increased hygiene concerns, solving a deficiency in skilled personnel, and AI.
