By Martin Bayliss
That we are living
in turbulent and troublesome times is news to no one. The global
financial crisis, the accelerating impact of climate change and
other impending environmental disasters, the impact of wars,
terrorism and civil unrest all compete daily for attention in
the world's media.
To some extent, of course, that has always been the case. There
is no profit in peddling good news. Disasters capture the attention
more assuredly than positive achievements, which appear to have
news value only in the sporting arena and entertainment business.
Good news without a 'celebrity' to sustain it is no news at all.
To be sure, today's bad economic news is not only spectacular,
it also reflects a reality that in one way or another will affect
us all directly. In the past few months, starting with the banks,
the bursting bubble has splattered its venomous content over
the whole industrial and business world.
The past quarter has seen the global automotive industry slide
to the brink of disaster. Producers of non-essential goods in
general are subject to sharply shrinking demand. China's exporters
as much as Detroit or Bordeaux are all feeling the tightening
of the economic screws.
Worldwide, what began a few months ago as a kick in the backside
of Wall Street's bloated bankers has started to hurt people in
all walks of life. Job losses are accelerating, pensions are
shrinking, houses are being repossessed as markets fall and credit
disappears. Governments are under pressure to reverse a slide
they do not fully understand and cannot control.
The consequences of climate change are also always in the news
these days. Europe's recent tempests and Australia's devastating
bush fires are, almost as clearly as the world's melting ice
caps, are both related to the impact of global warming, according
to many experts. Again, the solution is far from clear.
Against this backdrop, it is some consolation to be working
in a sector that is relatively unaffected by the turbulence.
True, Kimberly-Clark reported a drop in volume sales last quarter
but part of that is no doubt attributable to destocking. True,
too, there are clear signs of downgrading from consumers. And
some are affected by the credit crunch. But in general demand
continues at the levels of the recent past.
Our current issue gives further indications that confidence
in the growth of the industry continues. Companies are still
planning expansion and ordering new machines, even if delays
can be expected because of financing difficulties. ABC Tissue,
for example, aims to add a 60,000 ton/yr machine in Australia
as soon as credit is available (page 25). CMPC is continuing
to invest across South America (page 10).
A slowdown in investment is inevitable. All the big machine
manufacturers are seeing shrinking order books, even if their
workshops are still busy today. And it will be harder to persuade
paper makers to take the plunge with unproven new technology,
when cost-cutting contributes so much more rapidly and certainly
to the bottom line.
On the environmental side, the industry has opportunities as
well as challenges. Ever since I started to work in the paper
business, back in the 1970s, I have been struck by the popular
perception of the industry as an environmental bad boy. Back
then, many mills did pollute the air and poison the waterways,
while destruction of virgin forest was widespread. But the industry
has turned a new leaf, so to speak, and at least in the developed
economies such practices are largely a thing of the past.
Nonetheless, as our Consumerspeak interviews show this month
- not for the first time - welleducated and informed tissue buyers
still have questionable ideas about the products they buy. Most
common appear to be three: that recycled tissue is always better
for the environment, while bleached paper harms it, and that
coloured toilet tissue can damage people's health.
On page 11, we publish a news item that shows that three of
the world's biggest tissue producers are among its leaders in
sustainability. As noted above, good news is no news. What's
more, articles in praise of industry are generally dismissed
as mere propaganda. Nonetheless, such awards represent a positive
if small step for the tissue business. Despite the turbulent
times, the upcoming Tissue World conference and exhibition, which
take place in Nice, France, on 23-26 March, is expected to attract
leaders from all around the world to see the latest in technology
and to assess the way forward.
At times such as these, it can be tempting to forego such industry
events. On the contrary, in times of turmoil you need such meetings
more than ever: to see the new technology that can save you money
and improve your product; to hear new ideas that can create business
opportunities for you; above all, perhaps, to clear the mind
of the day-to-day routine and rethink what's really vital in
your job or business.
I hope to see you there. TW
Write to me at martin_bayliss@tissueworld.com with
your comments.
Taking
a step back from the crisis 
