By Martin Bayliss
One
of the most extraordinary success stories of the past 20 years – and there are
plenty of them – is that of South Africa. Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s,
the country was a pariah. International sanctions were in place as a protest
against the apartheid system which relegated the black and coloured population,
a vast majority, to a subservient class. State repression and violence against
any form of protest was a daily occurrence. Black political leaders languished
in jail.
A time bomb was ticking that threatened to explode in a terrible backlash
against the injustice of the colonial and apartheid periods. At best, revolution
and expulsion of the white ruling minority was to be expected. Far worse seemed
quite possible.
In the event, an amazing thing happened. A white prime minister and a black
exconvict/ political prisoner were enlightened enough to take the steps needed
to avoid revolution, bloodshed and chaos and to ensure a peaceful transition
to a modern pluralistic democracy in which all citizens have equal legal standing.
F W De Klerk lifted the ban on the African National Congress and Pan African
Congress and ordered the release from jail of Nelson Mandela in 1990. By 1992
the atmosphere had changed enough for a white electorate to vote 68% in favour
of dismantling apartheid. In 1994 South Africa voted in the first universal
general election.
The ANC won the election and Nelson Mandela was elected the first black president
of South Africa, with De Klerk as one of his vice presidents. The two men had
already shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993 and it may be one of the rare occasions
in recent years when the recipients truly deserved the honour. Since then, South
Africa has, to be sure, suffered from a variety of problems: devaluation of
the currency, crime, AIDS, for example. The social divide between the races
is still a gaping chasm, though black upward mobility is growing steadily.
South Africa is certainly richer, more stable and more democratic, and
probably safer than any other large country south of the Sahara. Though placed
only 105th on the CIA’s list of countries ranked by per capita GDP (slightly
below the world average of $10,500), it is far ahead of any other country
without significant oil resources.
Its wealth creators – above all mining, industry and tourism – are efficient
and generally prosperous, though the indices of volume output in mining and
manufacturing have both fallen since 2005. Unemployment is still high, too,
at 25%, and wealth distribution is heavily skewed towards the rich minority.
All of this has had an impact on the tissue business in South Africa. Critically,
the industry has not been subject to political transfers of ownership or
management, so that the many older machines that form the backbone of the
industry have been able to continue operating efficiently (see our main South
Africa articles in this issue). At the same time, new investment has tended
to be on a small scale, by newcomers to the business, while the large established
players have held off.
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Equally, rising prices have kept a lid on consumption. The vast majority of
South Africans cannot afford the luxury products in the supermarkets, even if
our Consumerspeak article this month shows there is demand for top-end items
when they offer a perceived advantage.
One of the most striking images of a recent trip to South Africa was of the
children from the townships – tough and economically deprived suburban housing
developments – all in disciplined groups and immaculate uniforms on their way
to school. South Africa’s future, despite the problems of crime and corruption,
seems headed in the right direction. This year’s football World Cup, to be held
in South Africa in a few months, is a symbol of the country’s progress in the
past 20 years. It is also a sign of hope for positive development for the country
and its troubled economy in the years ahead.
